1 Chiefs OT Luke Joeckel Texas A&M Jr. 6-6 310
Quarterback is clearly the crying need in K.C., but there's not an Andrew Luck or RGIII in sight atop this year's board. Maybe a passer gets pushed up into this spot at some point, but for now the value of the slot says you take the franchise left tackle in the first round and then try to pick off a quarterback to start the second round. Everybody knows Andy Reid likes to build his roster from the lines out, and with Chiefs left tackle Branden Albert eligible for free agency, Joeckel is the logical replacement.
2 Jags DE Bjoern Werner Florida State Jr. 6-4 256
It seems as if we've been writing about the Jaguars' need to acquire more pass rush in the draft for about 13 years in a row now. But with just 20 sacks last season, Jacksonville ranked 32nd in the league in dropping the quarterback. The Jags are in luck in that there are a lot of talented pass rushers in this year's top 10. Jacksonville plans to stick with a 4-3 defense under new head coach Gus Bradley and defensive coordinator Bob Babich, and Werner is well-suited to that scheme, with 13 sacks and 18 tackles for loss last season.
3 OAK DE Damontre Moore Texas A&M Jr. 6-4 250
Like the Jaguars, the Raiders are desperate for pass rush (they had 25 in 2012, ranking 31st), and Moore fits their need perfectly. Georgia outside linebacker Jarvis Jones is another option, but he's better suited to 3-4 outside linebacker, and the Raiders field a 4-3 look. Moore can handle playing in either formation, and his 12.5 sacks and 20 tackles for loss for the Aggies should translate into a top-three grade in this year's defense-heavy draft.
4 Eagles QB Geno Smith West Virginia Sr. 6-3 220
This is where the real guess-work begins, because so much depends on whether new Eagles coach Chip Kelly believes he currently has his starting quarterback on the roster or not. Smith's talents aren't a perfect mesh for Kelly's up-tempo offense, but he's got enough mobility to get the job done, and his pocket-passing skills are NFL ready. We know quarterbacks get pushed up by need, but the Eagles defense needs so much help that Alabama cornerback Dee Milliner could be tough to pass on.
5 Lions OLB Jarvis Jones Georgia Jr. 6-2 242
The Lions are another team seeking pass rushers, and Jones is one of the best this draft has to offer. Again, the 4-3 outside linebacker spot probably isn't his strong suit and he may need a little time to develop his game. But his athleticism and playmaking skills are dynamic, and his workouts this spring are likely to turn NFL heads. The spinal stenosis he was diagnosed with several years back will get a thorough re-examination by the league, but if he's cleared, it'd be a surprise to see him last beyond the top five.
6 Browns CB Dee Milliner Alabama Jr. 6-1
The ex-Crimson Tide product is the cleanest cornerback on the board, with a physical style of play and the ability to both tackle and pitch in on run defense. The idea of teaming Milliner with Cleveland's other first-round cornerback, the gifted Joe Haden, is an early draft scenario that's already quite popular in northeast Ohio.
7 Arizona QB Matt Barkley USC Sr. 6-2 230
The Cardinals have other options to fix their quarterback issues, perhaps by trading for Alex Smith or Matt Flynn. But if their division rivals in San Francisco or Seattle won't play ball with them, the Cardinals might talk themselves into Barkley, who was presumed to be a slam-dunk top five pick in 2012, had he not opted to return to USC for what proved to be a damaging senior season. Some don't consider Barkley a first-round talent any more, but let's see what happens once the NFL digs into his tape.
8 Bills QB Mike Glennon N.C. State Sr. 6-6 220
This pick doesn't reflect where Glennon's stock stands today, but where I think it's headed. Granted, Buffalo's need at quarterback is driving this projection of Glennon cracking the top 10. If the Bills don't find him intriguing, he very well may not make the first round. New Bills head coach Doug Marrone probably loves his collegiate QB, Syracuse's Ryan Nassib, but he's more likely to earn a second-to-mid-round grade. Just got a hunch that Glennon's size and arm strength will grow on NFL personnel men as the draft approaches.
9 Jets DE Barkevious Mingo LSU Jr. 6-4 240
It's an easy leap of logic to make, foreseeing a marriage of Mingo's athleticism and edge-rushing talent and Rex Ryan's love for that style of disruptive playmaking. The ex-LSU Tiger has X factor-type potential and pursuit skills, and Mingo is his name. Actually, with a moniker like Barkevious Mingo, this guy's a name player before he even steps foot on an NFL field.
10 Titans OG Chance Warmack Alabama Sr. 6-2 322
I think Titans head coach Mike Munchak played a little guard as I recall, and he's going to see the NFL's next great guard when he scouts Warmack's game. It's not a sexy pick for the Titans, but protecting Jake Locker and helping the Chris Johnson-led ground game get more consistent is plenty important enough to warrant a top 10 pick on an interior lineman of rare pedigree.